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Probability, Triggers, and a Green Instant

Magic: The Gathering isn’t just about big numbers and flashy combos; it’s a constant dance with probability. Players weigh not just what cards they hold, but what the math says about what might happen next. When we talk about triggering effects, we’re often looking at events that depend on choices, randomness, or what your opponent might drop on the stack. Mortal's Resolve gives us a perfect lens for this discussion: it’s a green instant that simply applies its effect when you cast it, rather than waiting for a later trigger. No dice roll, no coin flip, just a clean line: cast, resolve, your creature gets +1/+1 and becomes indestructible until end of turn. 🧙‍♂️🔥 The probability question isn’t “will it trigger?” but “will it resolve in the face of disruption, and how big is the impact when it does?” 💎⚔️

Mechanics snapshot: what Mortal's Resolve actually does

• Mana cost: {1}{G}. A lean ramp-and-pump combo staple from Born of the Gods, color identity green, and perfectly legal in Modern and many other formats depending on your deck.
• Type and effect: Instant. Target creature gets +1/+1 and gains indestructible until end of turn. Indestructible means damage and effects that say “destroy” don’t destroy it for that turn.
• Rarity and flavor: Common in the Born of the Gods set; flavor text speaks to iron-threaded destinies—“The Fates tried to cut her string but found the thread had turned to iron.”

In practical terms, this is a tempo play with a safety net. If your board is under pressure from mass removal or a combat trick that would kill your best creature, Mortal's Resolve can swing the outcome of a single exchange. It doesn’t deliver a permanent upgrade; it buys a turn, a swing, or a clutch survivability play. That makes it both predictable and powerful in the right moment. 🧙‍♂️🎲

Probability in practice: a simple way to think about it

When you cast Mortal's Resolve, the primary risk is disruption on the opponent’s turn—counterspells, hijacked combat steps, or instant-speed removal that blows up your plan. A clean resolve means the buff lands and the creature survives a crucial encounter; a counterspelled Resolve means nothing happens, and you’ve spent mana for nothing. So, the core probability after you announce the spell is:

Chance of it resolving = 1 − Chance it gets countered or otherwise fizzles.

In a two-player game, you can think about this in rough terms. If the opponent runs a blue control shell with a few counterspells and you’re operating in a meta where draws give them access to options on their turn, your chance of a given instant being countered might range from 10% to 30% or higher, depending on how many unanswered threats you’ve given them and how much mana they have open when you cast. The odds drop if you have protection—your own key permanence, a protective tutor, or a predictable board state that makes countering less attractive. Conversely, in a very control-heavy match, expect the counter chances to climb, and plan your plays accordingly. 🧠🎯

One practical takeaway for using Mortal's Resolve is to frame your decisions around the potential value of the buff, not merely the chance of a successful cast. If your target creature is already large or about to be lethal, the +1/+1 can turn a trade into a favorable outcome. If you expect lethal removal immediately after, the indestructible shield might mean the difference between a wiped board and a surprise comeback. That’s where probability meets real-time strategy: you’re not chasing a guaranteed result; you’re optimizing expected value across the turns that matter. 🎨💎

Flavor, lore, and the psychology of risk

The flavor text reminds us of fate and iron-woven threads—an apt metaphor for probability. In a game where every decision threads into the next, Mortal's Resolve is like a steel thread running through a moment of crisis. It’s not flashy, but in the right scenario it can turn a potentially disastrous board state into a narrow victory. When you memorize a card’s story, you also internalize its resilience: a small, steady buff that can weather even the sharpest blows. 🧙‍♂️🧩

Deck-building notes: leaning green for resilience

Green often champions resilience, ramp, and big creatures that want to weather the storm. Mortal's Resolve fits neatly into decks that value tempo and survivability—think midrange or stompy shells that can pivot from offense to defense with a single mana investment. It also pairs nicely with other protective or evasive tools. A well-timed Resolve on a flighty . . . or a sturdy beater canweather a swipe that would otherwise wipe your board. The artifact and enchantment hate, as well as graveyard interactions, can nudge the probability curve, but the core idea remains: you’re increasing your odds of surviving to the next turn while denying your foe a clean answer. ⚔️🔥

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