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Probability-Based Triggers and Pet Project: A Simulation Deep Dive

When you mix the whimsy of Unstable with the precision of probability modeling, you get a fun, rabbit-hole-style exploration of what makes MTG’s triggers tick. Pet Project, the zero-mana Artifact — Contraption from the league of dastardly dooms, asks you to consider not just whether a trigger will occur, but how often it will land a desired outcome over a span of games. 🧙‍♂️🔥 In practical terms, this card creates an unusual dynamic: you crank a contraption, and on each crank you may reanimate a creature card from an opponent’s graveyard under your control. The odds aren’t about raw power alone; they hinge on timing, graveyard composition, and how many times you’re willing to crank. Let’s roll up our sleeves and run through the simulation mindset that helps illuminate this quirky corner of casual Commander and goofy drafts. 🎲

Understanding the card and its flavor in play

Pet Project is an artifact — contraption from Unstable, released in 2017. It’s colorless, with a default mana cost of zero, and it sits in the oddball zone where mechanics like “crank” drive the tempo rather than raw resource generation. The card reads: “Whenever you crank this Contraption, put target creature card from an opponent's graveyard onto the battlefield under your control.” The flavor text and art (Franz Vohwinkel) celebrate mischief and mechanical whimsy, a perfect canvas for probability-based analyses. Its rarity is mythic, a nod to how unusual its effect can feel in practice. And yes, it’s a foil-friendly gem if you’re chasing eye-catching artifacts for your Unstable collection. 💎

“A single crank might steal a creature—two cranks might swing the board—three cranks could redefine late-game control.” — simulated instructor, MTG Lab

Setting up a sensible simulation

To study Pet Project’s triggers, you model the following variables:

• G: the number of creature cards in an opponent’s graveyard that are valid targets for reanimation (i.e., they’re still legal to reanimate under the current ruleset).
• C: the number of cranks you perform with the Contraption across a given window of turns (each crank yields one trigger).
• P: the probability that, when you crank, you choose a valid target that survives removal effects and enters play successfully.
• T: the number of opponents (for multi-player games) and how their graveyards contribute to the pool of potential targets.

In a simplified two-player scenario with a single opposing graveyard containing G targets and a clean play environment (no removal or shroud effects interfering), each crank yields a chance to pick a target and reanimate it. If you assume you can pick any remaining target, the probability of successfully reanimating at least one creature after C cranks approximates 1 minus the probability of failing every single crank—accounting for the changing pool as targets are used. This becomes a classic hypergeometric-like problem: as you remove targets, the balance shifts, and the “best next target” you choose can influence future cranks. 🧪

What the simulations typically reveal

Across typical micro-simulations, a few patterns emerge. First, Pet Project shines most when the graveyard host for the opponent is rich in viable targets and you can reliably crank multiple times. In a scenario with G = 6 targets and C = 3 cranks, assuming each crank has a fresh target from the remaining pool, the probability of reanimating at least one creature climbs quickly—roughly into the 75–90% range, depending on how often you actually reveal and resolve the trigger (and whether your deck can tutor or fetch a target). The more cranks you grant yourself, the more dramatic the cumulative chance becomes. ⚔️

Second, the presence of graveyard hate or removal spells in your opponent’s deck dramatically alters the math. If an opponent has efficient graveyard disruption or reanimation prevention, the effective G shrinks mid-game, and the probability curve flattens. In such cases, you might find optimal value in sequencing your other contraptions or accessories that tilt the odds toward your side of the table, rather than chasing a long-shot reanimation. This is where the “fun” of Unstable blends with practical play: you know the odds, but you still take calculated gambles with a smile. 😄

Strategies for maximizing expected value

In deck-building terms, consider assembling a set of contraptions that stack chances to crank more often or to peek at the opponent’s graveyard state. If you’ve got ways to untap, untap, or otherwise generate extra cranks, Pet Project’s power scales gracefully. Visualize a game where you can crank twice per turn across multiple turns—suddenly you’re talking about a near-certainty to grab a threat from the graveyard, provided the target remains legal and the battlefield can absorb it. In practice, this encourages playful inclusion of other artifact synergies and “brainy” choices for your casual or experimental builds. 🧙‍♀️🎨

The art and design contribute to the feel of the moment, too. The Unstable frame, the league watermark “leagueofdastardlydoom,” and the oddball humor around contraptions give tabletop storytelling extra texture. When you see the board state reflected in a simulated line of outcomes, you’re reminded that MTG is as much about the story you tell with your cards as it is about the numbers on the page. And yes, that makes the occasional improbable reanimation feel almost inevitable in the right group. 💎

Practical takeaways for players

- Treat Pet Project as a probabilistic tempo card: it rewards patience and careful sequencing more than raw speed. 🧙‍♂️

- In groups with graveyard shenanigans, expect the odds to swing dramatically; adapt by factoring potential removals into your crank plan. 🔥

- Pair it with other contraptions or noncreature threats that can draw attention, so your opponent’s decision space narrows as the game progresses. 🎲

Whether you’re chasing a memorable moment at your local LGS or exploring a whimsical, rules-bending Commander build, Pet Project invites you to think in terms of probabilities as much as play-lines. The card’s mythic shine, zero mana cost, and the unpredictable joy of seeing an opponent’s previously buried creatures return to the battlefield make it a favorite for a certain kind of MTG fan—one who loves both math and mischief in equal measure. 🧙‍♂️⚔️

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